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The meaning of Larijani's resignation: The mullahs want direct dialogue with
the United States The recent resignation of Ali Larigani, Iran's chief nulcear negoatiator, more than anything is a strong indication of Tehran's determination to force the bush administration to engage in one-on-one negotiations with Iran. The man named to replace Ali Larijani, Saeed Jalili, is appointed to this position to counter the United States's harder line in a long-running dispute over Tehran's atomic ambitions. Larijani's departure is intended to show the west that the hardliner position, the defiant position of Iran, will be the main policy of Iran from now on, and there will not be much chance of any change in the Iranian position unless Washington recognizes Iran's power in the region. Larijani pursued a three-pronged negotiating strategy: (1) persuade the west through diplomacy to ease pressure on Iran while sticking firmly to the broader policy of refusing to halt sensitive nuclear work;(2) to separate Europe from the US in the hope of forcing Washington to negotiate directly with Iran; and (3) to buy more time for Iran to advance its nuclear ambitions to a point of no return. While Larijani may have succeeded in achieving some of his objectives, he definitely failed to make any changes in Washington's position. In light of recent developments, particularly Putin's meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in which he apparently warned the Ayatollah of Washington's determination to use force if Tehran did not fully comply with its demands, Iran's ruling elite seems to have come to a conclusion that they have nothing more to offer in upcoming talks with Solana along the lines of the strategy pursued by Larijani. This is not to say that Tehran is convinced that the United States is going to attack Iran in the near future; rather, it simply means that since the US is not budging, it is time for a new strategy. It is time for Mr. Larijani, the "pragmatic", to go. As Ahmadinejad has said "Iran's nuclear file is closed." The ruling elite has a new strategy now: a coherent hardliner diplomacy aimed at forcing the United Sates to make a negotiated settlement with Iran. This new strategy has been in the making for some time, as seen in the dismissal and removal of the Commander in Chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, Rahim Safavi, a few months ago and a number of Ahmedinejad's cabinet ministers. Putin's trip to Iran, however, could be regarded as a turning point in making Iran's new foreign policy. It's Ahmadinejad's time now; the Supreme Leader has unleashed him. This new strategy is based on the assumption that the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as Bush's decreasing popularity at home make the US military attack against Iran almost impossible. Tehran believes that the growing talk of war combined with increasing US military presence in the Persian Gulf is nothing more than a psychological war aimed at forcing Iran to comply with the will of the US empire. However, Iranian leadership is smart enough not to gamble on pushing Europe fully towards US position by closing the doors of diplomacy. They know that if the international community is convinced that Iran is a global threat and backs US and Israeli war efforts against Iran, the military threat becomes a viable strategy to deal with Tehran's ambitions. That's why they are still going ahead with the scheduled meeting with Solana; interestingly, Larijani is accompanying the new chief negotiator, Mr. Jalili. Furthermore, even Ali Akbar Velayati, senior foreign affair adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, criticizes Larijani's departure : "In the sensitive and important conditions in which the nuclear issue is (now) being studied, it would have been better if such important changes did not happen." Ahmadinejas was also quoted as saying by Iranian state television during a trip to Armenia: "We are in favour of talks but we will not negotiate with anyone about our right to nuclear technology." Iran knows that any negotiated settlements with Europe would be meaningless if Washington did not support it. Tehran also knows that even if Iran halted its nuclear program, the United States would bring up other issues, as they have done so in recent weeks by claiming that Iran is playing a destabilizing role in Iraq and Afghanistan. They want to negotiate directly with the United States. They want full assurance from Washington about their security concerns. They also want them to cease their policy of regime change through overt or covert actions. Undoubtedly, Iranian regime is concerned about its survival more than any time. Internally, they are faced with growing discontents and resistance as a result of Ahamadinejad's repressive policies as well as his failure to deliver on his economic promises. Externally, there is also the threat of severe sanctions and even regime change. Their only hope is to reach some kind of settlements with the US and its allies. Diplomacy and pragmatic policies have failed to achieve this. They are now embarking on new hardliner international strategy in the hope of forcing the United States to enter into direct negotiations with Tehran. Whether there is any room for a negotiated settlements with Iran in the US imperialist agenda in the Middle East we have to wait and see. However, based on past precedents, one thing is certain, when the survival of the mullahs' regime is truly at stake, the ruling elites in Iran will definitely comply.
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